Portman Road Stadium · Referee Farai Hallam, England · Analysis updated 16:56 UTC
Ipswich vs Sunderland Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.99 expected goals for Ipswich and 1.34 for Sunderland, a combined total of 3.33. That distribution gives Ipswich the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ipswich win
52.7% probability
Expected goals
1.99 – 1.34
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ipswich home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sunderland away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.6%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.1%
- 2–07.1%
- 1–26.4%
Recent form
Ipswich
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Everton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crystal Palace · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool · 0-2 (L)
Sunderland
- 2026-10-15T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Torreense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City · 3-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland (Premier League)
- 2024-01-13T17:30:00.000Z · Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland (Championship)
- 2023-08-06T16:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 2-1 Sunderland (Championship)
- 2021-12-18T15:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-1 Sunderland (League One)
- 2021-11-20T15:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-2 Sunderland (League One)
- 2021-01-26T19:45:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-1 Sunderland (League One)
- 2020-11-03T19:30:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-2 Sunderland (League One)
- 2020-02-08T15:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 0-1 Sunderland (League One)
- 2019-08-10T14:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 1-1 Sunderland (League One)
- 2018-02-03T15:00:00.000Z · Ipswich 2-0 Sunderland (Championship)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Arsenal | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 3 | Brighton | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 13 |
| 4 | Brentford | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 5 | Everton | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Chelsea | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 7 | Leeds | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Hull City | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Liverpool | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 10 | Ipswich | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 9 |
| 11 | Newcastle | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Crystal Palace | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Manchester United | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 14 | Coventry | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 | Nottingham Forest | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 16 | Aston Villa | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 5 |
| 17 | Sunderland | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 4 |
| 18 | Bournemouth | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 19 | Tottenham | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 20 | Fulham | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ipswich win, at 52.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.