Kaftanzoglio Stadio · Referee Angelos Evangelou · Analysis updated 14:27 UTC
Iraklis 1908 vs Levadiakos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Iraklis 1908 and 0.79 for Levadiakos, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Iraklis 1908 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.3% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 0.79
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Levadiakos away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iraklis 1908 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 33% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Iraklis 1908 and 0.79 for Levadiakos, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 27% and both teams to score at 35%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.7%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–113.1%
- 2–08.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.75 (model 65.3% vs market 52.7%, edge +12.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.75 | 52.7% | 65.3% | 1.53 | +12.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.57 | 60.1% | 60.3% | 1.66 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 2.30 | 39.7% | 39.7% | 2.52 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 32.6% | 32.6% | 3.07 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 27.7% | 27.7% | 3.61 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.40 | 67.4% | 67.4% | 1.48 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.6% | 72.3% | 1.38 | -0.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.95 | 47.3% | 34.7% | 2.88 | -12.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Iraklis 1908
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Aris Thessalonikis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atromitos · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Asteras Tripolis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Volos NFC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs AEK Athens FC · 0-4 (L)
Levadiakos
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Olympiakos Piraeus · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kifisia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Panetolikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-31T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Panathinaikos · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PAOK · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Super League 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panathinaikos | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 15 |
| 2 | AEK Athens FC | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 14 |
| 3 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 13 |
| 4 | PAOK | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 5 | 12 |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 10 |
| 6 | OFI | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Iraklis 1908 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 8 | Panetolikos | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Kifisia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | Kalamata | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 11 | Asteras Tripolis | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 5 |
| 12 | Atromitos | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
| 13 | Levadiakos | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | -11 | 1 |
| 14 | Volos NFC | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.