· Analysis updated 07:37 UTC
Iraklis Larissa vs Elassona Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Iraklis Larissa and 2.00 for Elassona, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Elassona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Elassona win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
1.00 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iraklis Larissa home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Elassona away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Elassona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 18% / 21% / 61% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Iraklis Larissa and 2.00 for Elassona, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
40%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–110.0%
- 0–210.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 1–210.0%
- 0–36.6%
Recent form
Iraklis Larissa
- 2023-06-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Veria · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-06-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Makedonikos Neapolis · 0-0 (D)
- 2023-06-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Panathinaikos II · 1-3 (L)
- 2023-05-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Panserraikos · 2-0 (W)
- 2023-05-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iraklis 1908 · 1-4 (L)
Elassona
- 2026-05-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Pontou · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Panthrakikos · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Apollon Pontou · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Gamma Ethniki - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trikala | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 2 | Anthoupoli | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | Ermis Exochi | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Elassona | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 5 | Pierikos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Karitsa | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 7 | Sarakinos | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 8 | Ethnikos Neou Keramidiou | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 3 |
| 9 | Feraios | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 |
| 10 | Iraklis Larissa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
| 11 | Digenis Neochori | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Elassona win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.