Mardan Sports Complex · Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Iran vs Gambia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.00 expected goals for Iran and 1.00 for Gambia, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Iran the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Iran win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
3.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iran home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gambia away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iran to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.00 goals for Iran and 1.00 for Gambia, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–08.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 4–06.2%
Recent form
Iran
- 2026-06-27T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-21T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Belgium · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs New Zealand · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-06-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Mali · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Gambia · 3-1 (W)
Gambia
- 2026-09-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Ghana · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Somalia · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Iran · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-03-31T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Kuwait · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-29T15:30:00.000Z · Iran 3-1 Gambia (Friendlies)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Iran win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.