Grigol Jomartidze Stadium · Analysis updated 06:36 UTC
Irao vs Merani Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.64 expected goals for Irao and 1.24 for Merani Tbilisi, a combined total of 2.89. That distribution gives Irao the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Irao win
46.7% probability
Expected goals
1.64 – 1.24
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Irao home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Merani Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.2%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.1%
Recent form
Irao
- 2026-09-03T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-27T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Margveti 2006 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Gardabani · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Betlemi · 1-1 (D)
Merani Tbilisi
- 2026-10-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Iveria Khashuri · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Iberia 2010 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kolkheti Khobi · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-21T13:00:00.000Z · Irao 1-1 Merani Tbilisi (Liga 3)
- 2025-11-06T11:00:00.000Z · Irao 2-0 Merani Tbilisi (Liga 3)
- 2025-06-03T13:30:00.000Z · Irao 3-4 Merani Tbilisi (Liga 3)
- 2024-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · Irao 1-5 Merani Tbilisi (Liga 3)
- 2024-04-11T00:00:00.000Z · Irao 2-1 Merani Tbilisi (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 56 |
| 2 | Varketili | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Gonio | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Merani Tbilisi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Didube 2014 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 25 | 3 | 11 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -42 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -51 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Irao win, at 46.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.