· Analysis updated 06:56 UTC
Irapuato II vs Atletico Hidalgo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.39 expected goals for Irapuato II and 0.94 for Atletico Hidalgo, a combined total of 4.33. That distribution gives Irapuato II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 83%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 83% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Irapuato II win
83.1% probability
Expected goals
3.39 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Irapuato II home form
7 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Hidalgo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Irapuato II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 83%, against 83% / 10% / 7% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.39 goals for Irapuato II and 0.94 for Atletico Hidalgo, a combined 4.33 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
17%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.6%
- 3–18.0%
- 2–07.6%
- 4–07.3%
- 2–17.1%
Recent form
Irapuato II
- 2026-10-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Internacional Laguna · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruz Azul Lagunas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Heroes de Zaci 2 · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Celaya 2 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Hidalgo · 2-1 (W)
Atletico Hidalgo
- 2026-10-17T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Gorilas de Juanacatlan · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-02T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Huracanes Izcalli · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-20T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Internacional Laguna · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Irapuato II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-10T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordobés · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Premier Serie B table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Racing de Veracruz 2 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 15 |
| 2 | Irapuato II | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 10 |
| 3 | Celaya 2 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Gorilas de Juanacatlan | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 |
| 5 | Huracanes Izcalli | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 6 | Cruz Azul Lagunas | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 7 | Deportivo Ayense | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Heroes de Zaci 2 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 4 |
| 9 | Internacional Laguna | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -11 | 4 |
| 10 | Atletico Hidalgo | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Irapuato II win, at 83.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 83% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.