· Referee J. O. Montes Santos · Analysis updated 10:32 UTC
Irapuato vs Cancún Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Irapuato and 1.58 for Cancún, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Irapuato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.8% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Irapuato home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cancún away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Irapuato to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.85 goals for Irapuato and 1.58 for Cancún, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.5%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Irapuato
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Playa del Carmen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Zacatepec 1948 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Lobos ULMX · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 3-2 (W)
Cancún
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Venados FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Mineros de Zacatecas · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tapatío · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Tlaxcala · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Alebrijes de Oaxaca · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga de Expansión MX table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CA La Paz | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 27 |
| 2 | Leones Negros UDG | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 27 |
| 3 | Monarcas | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 9 | 26 |
| 4 | Piratas | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 24 |
| 5 | Venados FC | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 24 |
| 6 | Cancún | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 22 |
| 7 | Durango | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Tlaxcala | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 19 |
| 9 | Alebrijes de Oaxaca | 14 | 6 | 1 | 7 | -11 | 19 |
| 10 | Mineros de Zacatecas | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 18 |
| 11 | Tapatío | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 17 |
| 12 | Correcaminos Uat | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 13 | Dorados | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -6 | 16 |
| 14 | CDS Tampico Madero | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -8 | 15 |
| 15 | Cruz Azul Hidalgo | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 16 | Tepatitlán | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | -31 | 7 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.