· Analysis updated 13:35 UTC
Irapuato vs Los Cabos United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Irapuato and 0.65 for Los Cabos United, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Irapuato the largest share of the 1X2 market at 70%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 70% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Irapuato win
70.0% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Irapuato home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Los Cabos United away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Irapuato to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 70%, against 70% / 19% / 11% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Irapuato and 0.65 for Los Cabos United, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–014.1%
- 1–013.8%
- 3–09.6%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–19.0%
Recent form
Irapuato
- 2026-10-24T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter Playa del Carmen · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Zacatepec 1948 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Lobos ULMX · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 3-2 (W)
Los Cabos United
- 2026-10-24T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Racing de Veracruz · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Reboceros La Piedad · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-05T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cordobés · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs H2O Purepechas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Tritons Vallarta · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Premier table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Irapuato | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 24 |
| 2 | Racing de Veracruz | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 3 | Pioneros de Cancún | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 17 |
| 4 | Celaya | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Reboceros La Piedad | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 6 | Tigres de Alica | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 14 |
| 7 | Jaguares de Chiapas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 14 |
| 8 | Deportiva Venados | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Zacatepec 1948 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 10 | Chapulineros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Lobos ULMX | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Los Cabos United | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 13 | Montañeses | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Cordobés | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 7 |
| 15 | Tapachula | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 6 |
| 16 | H2O Purepechas | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 | Inter Playa del Carmen | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 18 | Tritons Vallarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Irapuato win, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.