Estadio Municipal de Montilivi · Referee R. De Burgos · Analysis updated 13:53 UTC
Iraq vs Andorra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for Iraq and 1.18 for Andorra, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Iraq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iraq home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Andorra away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iraq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 37% / 28% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.20 goals for Iraq and 1.18 for Andorra, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.1%
- 0–110.9%
- 0–09.2%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Iraq
- 2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-1 (D)
Andorra
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Malta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lithuania · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Malta · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-07T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosovo · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.