Stadium 974 · Referee P. Atcho · Analysis updated 07:14 UTC
Iraq vs Bahrain Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Iraq and 1.20 for Bahrain, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Iraq the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Iraq win
56.9% probability
Expected goals
2.05 – 1.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iraq home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iraq to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 21% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Iraq and 1.20 for Bahrain, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 61%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.6%
- 2–08.1%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–16.7%
Recent form
Iraq
- 2026-06-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Senegal · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-06-22T21:00:00.000Z · A vs France · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-06-16T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-06-10T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Venezuela · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Spain · 1-1 (D)
Bahrain
- 2026-09-30T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Yemen · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · H vs United Arab Emirates · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Qatar · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Georgia · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-12-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sudan · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Arab Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Iraq win, at 56.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.