Stade Municipal Colonel Chabou Abdelkader · Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
IRB Nezla vs Koléa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for IRB Nezla and 1.14 for Koléa, a combined total of 2.64. That distribution gives IRB Nezla the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
IRB Nezla win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
IRB Nezla home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Koléa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates IRB Nezla to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 26% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for IRB Nezla and 1.14 for Koléa, a combined 2.64 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.7%
- 2–19.2%
- 0–18.1%
- 2–08.0%
Recent form
IRB Nezla
- 2026-10-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs MO Constantine · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs JS Jijel · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs JSM Skikda · 0-2 (L)
- 2025-01-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Koléa · 0-1 (L)
- 2022-12-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Constantine · 1-4 (L)
Koléa
- 2026-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hussein Dey · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs WA Tlemcen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-25T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Usm El Harrach · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs JS El Biar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs MC Saida · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is IRB Nezla win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.