· Analysis updated 20:41 UTC
Irkutsk vs Zvezda St. Petersburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.81 expected goals for Irkutsk and 1.99 for Zvezda St. Petersburg, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Zvezda St. Petersburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Zvezda St. Petersburg win
64.9% probability
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.99
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Irkutsk home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Zvezda St. Petersburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 15% / 21% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.81 goals for Irkutsk and 1.99 for Zvezda St. Petersburg, a combined 2.80 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 53% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.1%
- 0–212.0%
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–38.0%
Recent form
Irkutsk
- 2026-10-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chertanovo Moscow · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kosmos Dolgoprudny · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo St. Petersburg · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Cherepovets · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 0-0 (D)
Zvezda St. Petersburg
- 2026-10-02T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Tver · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Iskra Smolensk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Murom · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-14T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Luki-Energiya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Torpedo Vladimir · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Murom | 21 | 14 | 2 | 5 | 18 | 44 |
| 2 | Dinamo St. Petersburg | 20 | 12 | 6 | 2 | 22 | 42 |
| 3 | Luki-Energiya | 21 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 18 | 42 |
| 4 | Baltika II | 21 | 12 | 4 | 5 | 19 | 40 |
| 5 | Chertanovo Moscow | 21 | 11 | 6 | 4 | 21 | 39 |
| 6 | Torpedo Vladimir | 20 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 32 |
| 7 | Kosmos Dolgoprudny | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Tver | 21 | 7 | 3 | 11 | -6 | 24 |
| 9 | Cherepovets | 20 | 7 | 3 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Zvezda St. Petersburg | 20 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 0 | 24 |
| 11 | Dinamo Vologda | 20 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 3 | 23 |
| 12 | Spartak Moscow 2 | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 13 | Yenisey II | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -17 | 19 |
| 14 | Iskra Smolensk | 21 | 3 | 6 | 12 | -25 | 15 |
| 15 | Irkutsk | 21 | 3 | 2 | 16 | -35 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Zvezda St. Petersburg win, at 64.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.