Ironi Modi'in vs Maccabi Herzliya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Ironi Modi'in and 1.20 for Maccabi Herzliya, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Ironi Modi'in the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.20

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ironi Modi'in home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Maccabi Herzliya away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ironi Modi'in win42%

Draw26%

Maccabi Herzliya win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–010.4%
0–18.9%
2–18.8%
1–27.5%

Recent form

Ironi Modi'in

2026-10-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Maccabi Bnei Raina · 0-6 (L)
2026-10-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Afula · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Ahi Nazareth · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ashdod · 1-3 (L)

Maccabi Herzliya

2026-09-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kiryat Yam SC · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bnei Yehuda · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Kafr Qasim · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-07T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Kiryat Gat · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Kfar Saba · 0-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-18T16:30:00.000Z · Ironi Modi'in 0-2 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
2026-01-26T17:00:00.000Z · Ironi Modi'in 1-2 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
2025-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · Ironi Modi'in 1-2 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Leumit)
2023-02-10T09:45:00.000Z · Ironi Modi'in 1-2 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Alef)
2022-10-07T09:00:00.000Z · Ironi Modi'in 2-3 Maccabi Herzliya (Liga Alef)

Liga Leumit table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ashdod	11	9	1	1	15	28
2	Bnei Yehuda	11	8	3	0	17	27
3	Hapoel Kfar Shalem	11	7	2	2	8	23
4	Hapoel Rishon LeZion	11	6	3	2	6	21
5	Hapoel Ra'anana	11	6	1	4	8	19
6	Kiryat Yam SC	11	6	1	4	7	19
7	Hapoel Afula	11	5	3	3	3	18
8	Maccabi Bnei Raina	11	5	2	4	6	17
9	Kafr Qasim	11	4	1	6	1	13
10	Hapoel Kfar Saba	11	4	0	7	-7	12
11	Maccabi Kiryat Gat	11	2	5	4	-2	11
12	Maccabi Ahi Nazareth	11	3	2	6	-7	11
13	Ironi Modi'in	11	3	2	6	-8	11
14	Maccabi Herzliya	11	2	3	6	-5	9
15	Maccabi Kabilio Jaffa	11	3	0	8	-14	9
16	Hapoel Acre	11	0	1	10	-28	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.