Ironi Tiberias vs Hapoel Petah Tikva Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Ironi Tiberias and 0.94 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined total of 2.41. That distribution gives Ironi Tiberias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ironi Tiberias win

49.7% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 0.94

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ironi Tiberias home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Hapoel Petah Tikva away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ironi Tiberias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Ironi Tiberias and 0.94 for Hapoel Petah Tikva, a combined 2.41 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Ironi Tiberias win50%

Draw26%

Hapoel Petah Tikva win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals43%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.2%
1–112.4%
2–09.8%
2–19.1%
0–09.0%

Recent form

Ironi Tiberias

2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-15T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Petah Tikva · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Kiryat Shmona · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Petah Tikva · 1-0 (W)

Hapoel Petah Tikva

2026-09-18T12:45:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Tel Aviv · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Maccabi Haifa · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-29T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Hapoel Katamon · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-22T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Ironi Tiberias · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Ligat Ha'al table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Maccabi Tel Aviv	6	5	1	0	12	16
2	Maccabi Haifa	6	5	0	1	8	15
3	Hapoel Tel Aviv	6	4	1	1	9	13
4	Hapoel Beer Sheva	6	4	1	1	3	13
5	Beitar Jerusalem	6	4	0	2	2	12
6	Hapoel Haifa	6	2	3	1	2	9
7	Hapoel Katamon	6	2	1	3	-3	7
8	Maccabi Netanya	6	1	3	2	0	6
9	Maccabi Petah Tikva	6	2	0	4	-4	6
10	Bnei Sakhnin	6	1	2	3	-3	5
11	Hapoel Petah Tikva	6	1	1	4	-6	4
12	Ironi Kiryat Shmona	6	1	0	5	-8	3
13	Hapoel Ramat Gan	6	1	0	5	-9	3
14	Ironi Tiberias	6	2	1	3	-3	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ironi Tiberias win, at 49.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.