Irtysh vs FC Astana Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Irtysh and 1.61 for FC Astana, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives FC Astana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

FC Astana win

50.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Irtysh home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Astana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates FC Astana to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 24% / 25% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Irtysh and 1.61 for FC Astana, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Irtysh win24%

Draw25%

FC Astana win51%

Double chance 1X

49%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

76%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–111.8%
0–111.4%
1–29.5%
0–29.2%
1–07.3%

Recent form

Irtysh

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 0-2 (L)

FC Astana

2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Atyrau · 3-2 (W)
2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-02T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ulytau · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Altay · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
2	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	30	58
3	FC Astana	25	13	6	6	15	45
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	10	8	8	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	-1	37
8	Zhenys	27	8	8	11	-7	32
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	-8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	8	5	13	-9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	7	7	13	-9	28
12	Atyrau	25	5	11	9	-6	26
13	Irtysh	26	6	8	12	-10	26
14	Kaisar	26	4	12	10	-11	24
15	Altay	26	5	8	13	-13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	-19	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is FC Astana win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.