Irtysh vs Kaspiy Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Irtysh and 1.08 for Kaspiy, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Irtysh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.27 – 1.08

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Irtysh home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Irtysh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.27 goals for Irtysh and 1.08 for Kaspiy, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 42% and both teams to score at 47%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.

Match result (1X2)

Irtysh win41%

Draw28%

Kaspiy win31%

Double chance 1X

69%

Double chance 12

72%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–113.1%
1–012.2%
0–110.3%
0–09.6%
2–18.3%

Recent form

Irtysh

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 0-2 (L)

Kaspiy

2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kairat Almaty · 0-3 (L)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Yelimay Semey · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Kairat Almaty	26	18	6	2	33	60
2	Ordabasy	25	18	4	3	30	58
3	FC Astana	25	13	6	6	15	45
4	Aktobe	27	13	6	8	9	45
5	Okzhetpes	26	13	6	7	6	45
6	Yelimay Semey	26	10	8	8	0	38
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	27	11	4	12	-1	37
8	Zhenys	27	8	8	11	-7	32
9	Ulytau	26	8	8	10	-8	32
10	Kaspiy	26	8	5	13	-9	29
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	27	7	7	13	-9	28
12	Atyrau	25	5	11	9	-6	26
13	Irtysh	26	6	8	12	-10	26
14	Kaisar	26	4	12	10	-11	24
15	Altay	26	5	8	13	-13	23
16	Zhetysu	27	5	7	15	-19	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.