Irtysh vs Kyzyl-Zhar Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Irtysh and 0.93 for Kyzyl-Zhar, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Irtysh the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Irtysh win

49.3% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 0.93

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Irtysh home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kyzyl-Zhar away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Irtysh to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 27% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.45 goals for Irtysh and 0.93 for Kyzyl-Zhar, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Irtysh win49%

Draw27%

Kyzyl-Zhar win24%

Double chance 1X

76%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

51%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score46%

Correct score

1–013.5%
1–112.5%
2–09.8%
0–09.3%
2–19.0%

Recent form

Irtysh

2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kairat Almaty · 0-5 (L)
2026-10-14T10:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Kyzyl-Zhar · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Okzhetpes · 2-1 (W)

Kyzyl-Zhar

2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Astana · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-08T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Altay · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Aktobe · 3-1 (W)
2026-07-25T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Zhetysu · 2-1 (W)
2026-07-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Tobol Kostanay · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Ordabasy	27	20	4	3	35	64
2	Kairat Almaty	27	19	6	2	38	63
3	FC Astana	27	14	7	6	16	49
4	Okzhetpes	28	14	6	8	5	48
5	Aktobe	28	13	6	9	7	45
6	Yelimay Semey	28	12	8	8	2	44
7	FK Tobol Kostanay	28	12	4	12	1	40
8	Ulytau	28	9	8	11	-7	35
9	Kaspiy	28	9	6	13	-8	33
10	Zhenys	28	8	8	12	-9	32
11	Kyzyl-Zhar	28	7	7	14	-10	28
12	Atyrau	27	5	12	10	-7	27
13	Irtysh	28	6	8	14	-16	26
14	Zhetysu	28	6	7	15	-18	25
15	Altay	28	5	9	14	-14	24
16	Kaisar	28	4	12	12	-15	24

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Irtysh win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.