Stadion Sriwedari · Referee A. F. Sinaga · Analysis updated 08:20 UTC
Isenmulang Kalteng vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.74 expected goals for Isenmulang Kalteng and 1.23 for Persebaya Surabaya, a combined total of 1.96. That distribution gives Persebaya Surabaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Persebaya Surabaya win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
0.74 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Isenmulang Kalteng home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Persebaya Surabaya away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Persebaya Surabaya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 22% / 30% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.74 goals for Isenmulang Kalteng and 1.23 for Persebaya Surabaya, a combined 1.96 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–117.2%
- 0–014.1%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–210.6%
- 1–010.4%
Recent form
Isenmulang Kalteng
- 2026-10-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persijap · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persebaya Surabaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 1-4 (L)
Persebaya Surabaya
- 2026-10-22T08:30:00.000Z · A vs PSM Makassar · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-18T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSS Sleman · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs PSIM Yogyakarta · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Persija | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 15 |
| 2 | Dewa United | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 14 |
| 3 | Bali United | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 12 | 13 |
| 4 | Persepam Madura Utd | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 13 |
| 5 | Persib Bandung | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Persita | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Bhayangkara FC | 6 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Persik Kediri | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 9 | Arema FC | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 9 |
| 10 | Persebaya Surabaya | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | PSM Makassar | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Java United | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 13 | Pusamania Borneo | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Garudayaksa | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 15 | PSS Sleman | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Isenmulang Kalteng | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 17 | PSIM Yogyakarta | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 2 |
| 18 | Persijap | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Persebaya Surabaya win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.