Stadion Sriwedari · Analysis updated 13:34 UTC
Isenmulang Kalteng vs Sriwijaya FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.97 expected goals for Isenmulang Kalteng and 1.03 for Sriwijaya FC, a combined total of 4.00. That distribution gives Isenmulang Kalteng the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Isenmulang Kalteng win
76.6% probability
Expected goals
2.97 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Isenmulang Kalteng home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Sriwijaya FC away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Isenmulang Kalteng to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 77% / 14% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.97 goals for Isenmulang Kalteng and 1.03 for Sriwijaya FC, a combined 4.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
23%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.1%
- 3–08.0%
- 4–16.1%
Recent form
Isenmulang Kalteng
- 2026-10-20T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Java United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-16T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Persijap · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Persebaya Surabaya · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bhayangkara FC · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bali United · 1-4 (L)
Sriwijaya FC
- 2026-05-02T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Isenmulang Kalteng · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Garudayaksa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T12:00:00.000Z · A vs PSMS Medan · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-12T08:30:00.000Z · A vs Persekat · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-03T08:30:00.000Z · H vs PSPS · 0-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PSPS | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 2 | Tornado Pekanbaru | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 15 |
| 3 | Deltras | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 4 | PSMS Medan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 14 |
| 5 | Persela Lamongan | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | RANS Nusantara | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 7 | Barito Putera | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 8 | Persikad Depok FC | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Persipura Jayapura | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 11 |
| 10 | Sumsel United | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | PSIS Semarang | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | Semen Padang | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Persis Solo | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 14 | Persiraja Banda Aceh | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 7 |
| 15 | PSGC Ciamis | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Bekasi City | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
| 17 | Dejan | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 6 |
| 18 | Persiku Kudus | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -18 | 1 |
| 19 | Persiba Balikpapan | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -14 | 0 |
| 20 | PSBS Biak Numfor | 7 | 0 | 0 | 7 | -36 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Isenmulang Kalteng win, at 76.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.