· Analysis updated 08:33 UTC
Isidro Metapán vs Alianza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Isidro Metapán and 0.95 for Alianza, a combined total of 2.47. That distribution gives Isidro Metapán the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Isidro Metapán win
50.7% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Isidro Metapán home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Isidro Metapán to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 26% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Isidro Metapán and 0.95 for Alianza, a combined 2.47 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.8%
- 1–112.2%
- 2–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Isidro Metapán
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cacahuatique · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Inter · 0-0 (D)
Alianza
- 2026-10-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Cacahuatique · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-09T01:30:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T00:00:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 2-0 Alianza (Primera Division)
- 2026-04-21T23:00:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 1-1 Alianza (Copa Presidente)
- 2026-04-08T01:00:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 1-3 Alianza (Copa Presidente)
- 2026-04-02T01:00:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 0-0 Alianza (Primera Division)
- 2026-02-05T01:30:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 1-2 Alianza (Primera Division)
- 2025-10-12T01:15:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 1-0 Alianza (Primera Division)
- 2025-08-10T01:00:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 2-0 Alianza (Primera Division)
- 2025-04-27T00:00:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 0-1 Alianza (Primera Division)
- 2025-03-02T01:15:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 2-1 Alianza (Primera Division)
- 2024-12-08T01:15:00.000Z · Isidro Metapán 0-0 Alianza (Primera Division)
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Inter | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Isidro Metapán win, at 50.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.