· Analysis updated 07:23 UTC
Isidro Metapán vs Inca Aruba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Isidro Metapán and 0.50 for Inca Aruba, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Isidro Metapán the largest share of the 1X2 market at 73%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 73% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Isidro Metapán win
72.6% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Isidro Metapán home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Inca Aruba away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Isidro Metapán to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 73%, against 73% / 19% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Isidro Metapán and 0.50 for Inca Aruba, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
27%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.6%
- 2–016.4%
- 3–010.8%
- 0–08.4%
- 1–18.3%
Recent form
Isidro Metapán
- 2026-10-24T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Alianza · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-22T01:30:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Fuerte San Francisco · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Águila · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Balboa · 3-2 (W)
Inca Aruba
- 2026-10-24T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Platense · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-05T01:00:00.000Z · A vs FAS · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-02T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Municipal Limeño · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Primera Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Firpo | 15 | 9 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 31 |
| 2 | FAS | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 31 |
| 3 | Isidro Metapán | 17 | 9 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 30 |
| 4 | Águila | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 27 |
| 5 | Inter | 17 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 26 |
| 6 | Alianza | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 23 |
| 7 | Platense | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 0 | 22 |
| 8 | Municipal Limeño | 17 | 6 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 9 | Inca Aruba | 17 | 4 | 4 | 9 | -18 | 16 |
| 10 | Atletico Balboa | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 11 | Cacahuatique | 17 | 2 | 7 | 8 | -11 | 13 |
| 12 | Fuerte San Francisco | 16 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -14 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Isidro Metapán win, at 72.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.