· Analysis updated 13:29 UTC
İskenderunspor vs Karacabey Belediyespor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for İskenderunspor and 1.97 for Karacabey Belediyespor, a combined total of 3.22. That distribution gives Karacabey Belediyespor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Karacabey Belediyespor win
54.2% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
İskenderunspor home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Karacabey Belediyespor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–17.9%
- 0–27.8%
- 1–36.4%
Recent form
İskenderunspor
- 2026-10-24T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Ankara Demirspor · 0-7 (L)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Yeni Orduspor · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sakaryaspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T12:00:00.000Z · H vs 24 Erzincanspor · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı · 0-5 (L)
Karacabey Belediyespor
- 2026-10-24T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Adana 01 FK · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · H vs 1461 Trabzon FK · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-07T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Galata · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Fethiyespor · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-28T12:00:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 3-4 Karacabey Belediyespor (2. Lig)
- 2025-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 0-2 Karacabey Belediyespor (2. Lig)
- 2023-03-29T11:00:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 1-1 Karacabey Belediyespor (2. Lig)
- 2022-10-15T16:00:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 0-1 Karacabey Belediyespor (2. Lig)
- 2017-01-22T10:30:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 0-3 Karacabey Belediyespor (3. Lig - Group 1)
- 2016-09-10T12:30:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 2-1 Karacabey Belediyespor (3. Lig - Group 1)
- 2016-02-14T11:30:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 0-0 Karacabey Belediyespor (3. Lig - Group 1)
- 2015-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · İskenderunspor 5-0 Karacabey Belediyespor (3. Lig - Group 1)
2. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aliağa FAŞ | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Elazığspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Muş Sport Klübü | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Güzide Gebzespor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Şanlıurfaspor | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Çorluspor 1947 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Isparta 32 Spor | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Erbaaspor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Menemen FK | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Ankaraspor | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Somaspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Kastamonuspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 4 |
| 16 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | |
| 1 | Sakaryaspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Yeni Orduspor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Adana 01 FK | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | Ankara Demirspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | 24 Erzincanspor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | 1461 Trabzon FK | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Karacabey Belediyespor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 Bingölspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Kütahyaspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Ankaragücü | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Kırklarelispor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Fethiyespor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | İnegölspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Serik Spor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
| 17 | İskenderunspor | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Karacabey Belediyespor win, at 54.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.