· Analysis updated 03:26 UTC
Iskra vs Mogren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.60 expected goals for Iskra and 1.43 for Mogren, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Mogren the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Mogren win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
0.60 – 1.43
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iskra home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Mogren away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Mogren to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 16% / 27% / 57% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.60 goals for Iskra and 1.43 for Mogren, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
43%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
84%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.8%
- 0–213.4%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–111.3%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Iskra
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grbalj · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kom · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Mladost Lješkopolje · 1-1 (D)
Mogren
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudar · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Grbalj · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Kom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-30T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Lovćen · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Jedinstvo · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Second League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Mogren win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.