Wakefield Park 1 · Referee Cory Mills · Analysis updated 13:28 UTC
Island Bay United vs Upper Hutt City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Island Bay United and 1.64 for Upper Hutt City, a combined total of 3.57. That distribution gives Island Bay United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Island Bay United win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 1.64
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Island Bay United home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Upper Hutt City away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Island Bay United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.93 goals for Island Bay United and 1.64 for Upper Hutt City, a combined 3.57 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.9%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–27.3%
- 2–27.0%
- 3–15.5%
Recent form
Island Bay United
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Western Suburbs · 0-0 (D)
- 2025-08-23T03:30:00.000Z · H vs Wellington Olympic · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-08-09T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Petone · 0-5 (L)
- 2025-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-07-20T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Napier City Rovers · 1-4 (L)
Upper Hutt City
- 2025-08-30T02:30:00.000Z · A vs North Wellington · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-23T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Suburbs · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-09T03:45:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Olympic · 1-1 (D)
- 2025-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Petone · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-07-19T02:30:00.000Z · A vs Miramar · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - Central table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington Olympic | 18 | 14 | 3 | 1 | 44 | 45 |
| 2 | Miramar | 18 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 31 | 39 |
| 3 | Western Suburbs | 18 | 10 | 4 | 4 | 33 | 34 |
| 4 | Wellington Phoenix II | 18 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 29 |
| 5 | Napier City Rovers | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 28 |
| 6 | Petone | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | -2 | 19 |
| 7 | Waterside Karori | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | -41 | 16 |
| 8 | Upper Hutt City | 18 | 3 | 5 | 10 | -30 | 14 |
| 9 | Island Bay United | 18 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -34 | 13 |
| 10 | North Wellington | 18 | 2 | 6 | 10 | -40 | 12 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Island Bay United win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.