Ismaily SC vs AL Nasr SC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.07 expected goals for Ismaily SC and 1.52 for AL Nasr SC, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives AL Nasr SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

AL Nasr SC win

47.8% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.07 – 1.52

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ismaily SC home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AL Nasr SC away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AL Nasr SC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 27% / 26% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.07 goals for Ismaily SC and 1.52 for AL Nasr SC, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ismaily SC win27%

Draw26%

AL Nasr SC win48%

Double chance 1X

52%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

73%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.2%
0–111.4%
1–29.3%
0–28.7%
1–08.0%

Recent form

Ismaily SC

2026-10-23T12:30:00.000Z · H vs La Viena FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-16T12:30:00.000Z · A vs El Seka El Hadid · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-09T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Tanta SC · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-02T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Dayrout · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Mega Sport · 3-2 (W)

AL Nasr SC

2026-10-22T12:30:00.000Z · H vs El Dakhleya · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-15T12:30:00.000Z · A vs El Mansura · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-08T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Proxy · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-01T12:30:00.000Z · A vs La Viena FC · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs El Seka El Hadid · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Second League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Masar	10	7	1	2	11	22
2	Haras El Hodood	10	5	5	0	8	20
3	Itesalat	10	6	1	3	7	19
4	Pharco	10	6	1	3	4	19
5	Kahraba Ismailia	10	5	3	2	8	18
6	Maleyet Kafr El Zayiat	10	5	3	2	5	18
7	AL Nasr SC	10	4	5	1	6	17
8	Tersana	10	4	5	1	5	17
9	El Mansura	10	5	2	3	2	17
10	El Seka El Hadid	10	4	3	3	2	15
11	Baladiyyat Al Mehalla	10	3	3	4	0	12
12	Team	10	3	2	5	-5	11
13	El Entag EL Harby	10	2	4	4	1	10
14	Ismaily SC	10	2	4	4	-4	10
15	Tanta SC	10	2	4	4	-4	10
16	El Dakhleya	10	2	4	4	-6	10
17	Proxy	10	2	2	6	-7	8
18	La Viena FC	10	1	4	5	-6	7
19	Dayrout	10	1	3	6	-16	6
20	Mega Sport	10	0	3	7	-11	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is AL Nasr SC win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.