Isparta Atatürk Sehir Stadyumu · Analysis updated 23:36 UTC
Isparta 32 Spor vs Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Isparta 32 Spor and 0.95 for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu, a combined total of 3.04. That distribution gives Isparta 32 Spor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Isparta 32 Spor win
63.6% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Isparta 32 Spor home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu away threat
Scored in 0 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Isparta 32 Spor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 64%, against 64% / 20% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Isparta 32 Spor and 0.95 for Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu, a combined 3.04 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.4%
- 1–010.0%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.5%
- 3–07.3%
Recent form
Isparta 32 Spor
- 2026-10-18T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Kastamonuspor · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Hatayspor · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Çorluspor 1947 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Güzide Gebzespor · 3-3 (D)
Yeni Mersin Idmanyurdu
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kırklarelispor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Isparta 32 Spor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-04-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Arnavutköy Belediyespor · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Muş Sport Klübü · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-25T15:00:00.000Z · H vs 1461 Trabzon FK · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
2. Lig table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aliağa FAŞ | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 2 | Elazığspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 15 | 19 |
| 3 | Muş Sport Klübü | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Güzide Gebzespor | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 8 | 18 |
| 5 | İnegöl Kafkas Gençlik | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Şanlıurfaspor | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Çorluspor 1947 | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 8 | Isparta 32 Spor | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Erbaaspor | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Menemen FK | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 10 |
| 11 | 68 Aksaray Belediyespor | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 12 | Ankaraspor | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Somaspor | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 14 | Sebat Gençlikspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 15 | Kastamonuspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -14 | 4 |
| 16 | Arnavutköy Belediyespor | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -15 | |
| 17 | Hatayspor | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | |
| 18 | Adana Demirspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -6 | |
| 1 | Sakaryaspor | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 19 |
| 2 | Yeni Orduspor | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 18 |
| 3 | Adana 01 FK | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | Ankara Demirspor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 16 |
| 5 | 24 Erzincanspor | 7 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | 1461 Trabzon FK | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Kahramanmaraş İstiklal Spor | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Karacabey Belediyespor | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 11 |
| 9 | Beyoğlu Yeni Çarşı | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 10 | 12 Bingölspor | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Kütahyaspor | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -7 | 7 |
| 12 | Ankaragücü | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 |
| 13 | Kırklarelispor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 14 | Fethiyespor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 15 | İnegölspor | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 2 |
| 16 | Serik Spor | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -9 | 2 |
| 17 | İskenderunspor | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -19 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Isparta 32 Spor win, at 63.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.