· Analysis updated 12:52 UTC
Istaravshan vs CSKA Pomir Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.98 expected goals for Istaravshan and 1.68 for CSKA Pomir, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives CSKA Pomir the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CSKA Pomir win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Istaravshan home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CSKA Pomir to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 22% / 24% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.98 goals for Istaravshan and 1.68 for CSKA Pomir, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 49% and both teams to score at 51%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–111.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–29.9%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–07.1%
Recent form
Istaravshan
- 2026-09-16T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Eskhata · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Barki Tajik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Khatlon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khujand · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-02T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Khosilot Farkhor · 2-5 (L)
CSKA Pomir
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ravshan · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Eskhata · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Khatlon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-01T12:15:00.000Z · A vs Khujand · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Khosilot Farkhor · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Vysshaya Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regar-TadAZ | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 16 | 40 |
| 2 | Istiqlol | 17 | 11 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 37 |
| 3 | Khosilot Farkhor | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 14 | 35 |
| 4 | CSKA Pomir | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 27 |
| 5 | Khujand | 17 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 6 | Ravshan | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 26 |
| 7 | Khatlon | 19 | 6 | 8 | 5 | 5 | 26 |
| 8 | Barki Tajik | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | -1 | 25 |
| 9 | Eskhata | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | -10 | 20 |
| 10 | Parvoz | 20 | 4 | 4 | 12 | -20 | 16 |
| 11 | Sardor Tursunzoda | 17 | 2 | 6 | 9 | -8 | 12 |
| 12 | Istaravshan | 19 | 0 | 6 | 13 | -22 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CSKA Pomir win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.