Istiqlol vs Khosilot Farkhor Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Istiqlol and 0.74 for Khosilot Farkhor, a combined total of 1.98. That distribution gives Istiqlol the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Istiqlol win

48.0% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.24 – 0.74

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Istiqlol home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Khosilot Farkhor away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Istiqlol to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 30% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Istiqlol and 0.74 for Khosilot Farkhor, a combined 1.98 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Istiqlol win48%

Draw30%

Khosilot Farkhor win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

70%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals59%

Over 2.5 goals32%

Over 3.5 goals14%

Both teams to score37%

Correct score

1–017.1%
0–013.8%
1–112.7%
2–010.6%
0–110.3%

Recent form

Istiqlol

2026-10-23T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wathba · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Al Arabi · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Al Nejmeh · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Khujand · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Khosilot Farkhor · 1-0 (W)

Khosilot Farkhor

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Ravshan · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Parvoz · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-05T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Istiqlol · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Regar-TadAZ · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sardor Tursunzoda · 3-3 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Vysshaya Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Istiqlol	17	11	4	2	17	37
2	Regar-TadAZ	17	11	4	2	14	37
3	Khosilot Farkhor	17	10	4	3	17	34
4	Barki Tajik	16	7	3	6	1	24
5	CSKA Pomir	16	7	3	6	-2	24
6	Khujand	16	6	6	4	4	24
7	Ravshan	17	6	4	7	4	22
8	Khatlon	17	4	8	5	0	20
9	Eskhata	17	5	4	8	-10	19
10	Parvoz	17	4	3	10	-17	15
11	Sardor Tursunzoda	16	2	5	9	-8	11
12	Istaravshan	17	0	6	11	-20	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Istiqlol win, at 48.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.