· Analysis updated 04:56 UTC
Istogu vs Trepça'89 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Istogu and 2.00 for Trepça'89, a combined total of 3.43. That distribution gives Trepça'89 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Trepça'89 win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Istogu home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Trepça'89 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Trepça'89 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 27% / 22% / 51% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.43 goals for Istogu and 2.00 for Trepça'89, a combined 3.43 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
49%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–29.3%
- 2–16.6%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–16.5%
Recent form
Istogu
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vjosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Trepça'89 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferizaj · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Liria Prizren · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Prishtina e Re · 0-1 (L)
Trepça'89
- 2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs 2 Korriku · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vëllaznimi · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Istogu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Vjosa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Rilindja 1974 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-16T14:00:00.000Z · Istogu 2-3 Trepça'89 (Liga E Pare)
- 2025-11-08T12:00:00.000Z · Istogu 0-2 Trepça'89 (Liga E Pare)
Liga E Pare table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liria Prizren | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 26 |
| 2 | Prishtina e Re | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 25 |
| 3 | Trepça'89 | 12 | 6 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Rilindja 1974 | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 5 | Ferizaj | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 10 | 20 |
| 6 | Dinamo Ferizaj | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 7 | Suhareka | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 19 |
| 8 | 2 Korriku | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Vëllaznimi | 12 | 5 | 2 | 5 | -4 | 17 |
| 10 | Istogu | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 11 | Vjosa | 12 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 12 | FC Besa Peja | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Trepça Mitrovicë | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 11 |
| 14 | Kika | 12 | 1 | 7 | 4 | -9 | 10 |
| 15 | Ramiz Sadiku | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 16 | KF Lepenci | 12 | 1 | 6 | 5 | -10 | 9 |
| 17 | Tefik Canga | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -8 | 7 |
| 18 | Mitrovica | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Trepça'89 win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.