Stadion Aldo Drosina · Referee Patrik Pavlešić, Croatia · Analysis updated 22:42 UTC
Istra 1961 vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Istra 1961 and 1.81 for Dinamo Zagreb, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Istra 1961 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
61.3% probability
Expected goals
1.83 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Istra 1961 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dinamo Zagreb away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
61%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–18.7%
- 2–17.9%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–27.2%
- 3–14.9%
Recent form
Istra 1961
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Gorica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagorec · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-2 (D)
Dinamo Zagreb
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vukovar · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Hapoel Beer Sheva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Osijek · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-09T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bedem Ivankovo · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-04-22T18:15:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2026-02-14T14:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-4 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-1 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-08-23T19:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-3 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-04-05T16:45:00.000Z · Istra 1961 3-0 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2025-01-25T16:30:00.000Z · Istra 1961 1-3 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-10-19T16:30:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-2 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-08-02T19:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-5 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
- 2024-04-07T15:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 1-4 Dinamo Zagreb (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 61.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 70% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.