Stadion Aldo Drosina · Referee Dario Bel, Croatia · Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Istra 1961 vs HNK Gorica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Istra 1961 and 1.03 for HNK Gorica, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Istra 1961 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Istra 1961 win
59.4% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Istra 1961 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
HNK Gorica away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–110.0%
- 1–09.8%
- 2–09.7%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Istra 1961
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Gorica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagorec · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-2 (D)
HNK Gorica
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-28T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Maribor · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-14T16:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Varazdin · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-1 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2026-04-27T16:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-1 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2026-02-21T14:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-2 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-11-23T17:15:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-1 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 1-0 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-04-12T14:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-3 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2025-01-31T16:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-0 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2024-10-27T16:30:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-1 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2024-08-10T19:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-1 HNK Gorica (HNL)
- 2024-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-2 HNK Gorica (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Istra 1961 win, at 59.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.