Stadion Aldo Drosina · Referee Antonio Melnjak, Croatia · Analysis updated 15:36 UTC
Istra 1961 vs Rudes Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Istra 1961 and 0.87 for Rudes, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Istra 1961 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 64%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 64% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Istra 1961 win
64.3% probability
Expected goals
2.03 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Istra 1961 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rudes away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.3%
- 1–011.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–07.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 10.8%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 49.5% vs market 46.4%, edge +3.1 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 46.4% | 49.5% | 2.02 | +3.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 78.8% | 79.5% | 1.26 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Away | 6.00 | 15.0% | 15.2% | 6.58 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.5% | 20.5% | 4.88 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 64.5% | 64.3% | 1.56 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.2% | 84.8% | 1.18 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.62 | 36.1% | 35.7% | 2.80 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.73 | 53.6% | 50.5% | 1.98 | -3.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Istra 1961
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Gorica · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Rudes · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Zagorec · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-29T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Dinamo Zagreb · 2-2 (D)
Rudes
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs NK Slaven Belupo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Istra 1961 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Koprivnica · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs HNK Hajduk Split · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Varazdin · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 3-2 Rudes (HNL)
- 2024-10-30T13:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-1 Rudes (Cup)
- 2024-05-03T15:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 3-1 Rudes (HNL)
- 2024-02-24T16:10:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-1 Rudes (HNL)
- 2023-11-11T15:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 4-0 Rudes (HNL)
- 2023-08-27T16:30:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-0 Rudes (HNL)
- 2022-11-08T13:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 1-2 Rudes (Cup)
- 2019-05-24T16:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 2-0 Rudes (HNL)
- 2019-04-04T16:00:00.000Z · Istra 1961 0-1 Rudes (HNL)
- 2018-12-16T16:30:00.000Z · Istra 1961 1-0 Rudes (HNL)
HNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | HNK Hajduk Split | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 19 |
| 2 | NK Varazdin | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 18 |
| 3 | Dinamo Zagreb | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 16 |
| 4 | NK Osijek | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | HNK Rijeka | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 6 | Istra 1961 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | NK Slaven Belupo | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 8 | NK Lokomotiva Zagreb | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 9 | Rudes | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
| 10 | HNK Gorica | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Istra 1961 win, at 64.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.