Stade Parsemain · Analysis updated 10:51 UTC
Istres vs Chateauroux Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.55 expected goals for Istres and 0.75 for Chateauroux, a combined total of 1.30. That distribution gives Chateauroux the largest share of the 1X2 market at 36%, with the draw at 40%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 14% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 27%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 36% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.7% probability
Expected goals
0.55 – 0.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Istres home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Chateauroux away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
60%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–027.3%
- 0–120.4%
- 1–015.0%
- 1–111.2%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Istres
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Chateauroux · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Limonest · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs UF Touraine · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Hyères · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Hauts Lyonnais · 1-2 (L)
Chateauroux
- 2026-10-16T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Rumilly Vallières · 4-7 (L)
- 2026-10-02T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Istres · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Limonest · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:00:00.000Z · A vs UF Touraine · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-28T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hyères · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2014-04-25T18:00:00.000Z · Istres 0-0 Chateauroux (Ligue 2)
- 2013-11-29T19:00:00.000Z · Istres 0-2 Chateauroux (Ligue 2)
- 2013-01-26T13:00:00.000Z · Istres 0-2 Chateauroux (Ligue 2)
- 2012-08-17T16:45:00.000Z · Istres 0-0 Chateauroux (Ligue 2)
- 2012-02-17T19:00:00.000Z · Istres 2-0 Chateauroux (Ligue 2)
- 2011-09-20T18:00:00.000Z · Istres 3-1 Chateauroux (Ligue 2)
- 2010-08-06T18:00:00.000Z · Istres 0-0 Chateauroux (Ligue 2)
National 2 - Group C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nimes | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 2 | Hyères | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 3 | Toulon | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 4 | UF Touraine | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Rumilly Vallières | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 10 | 12 |
| 6 | Fréjus St-Raphaël | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |
| 7 | Hauts Lyonnais | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 8 | Troyes II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 | Chasselay MDA | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 10 | Andrézieux | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 11 | Saint-Priest | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Limonest | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Lyon Duchere | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 14 | Istres | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 | Bourges Foot 18 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 2 | -4 | 4 |
| 16 | Chateauroux | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 17 | Canet Roussillon | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 14%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.