· Analysis updated 17:46 UTC
Itabirito U20 vs Atlético Mineiro U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Itabirito U20 and 1.85 for Atlético Mineiro U20, a combined total of 3.47. That distribution gives Atlético Mineiro U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
65.7% probability
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Itabirito U20 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Atlético Mineiro U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 34% / 22% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Itabirito U20 and 1.85 for Atlético Mineiro U20, a combined 3.47 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 67% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
57%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.3%
- 1–28.6%
- 2–17.6%
- 2–27.0%
- 0–15.7%
Recent form
Itabirito U20
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América Mineiro U20 · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional de Muriae U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Coimbra U20 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston City U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineiro U20 · 2-0 (W)
Atlético Mineiro U20
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Mineiro U20 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atlético Mineiro U20 | 19 | 13 | 1 | 5 | 33 | 40 |
| 2 | Cruzeiro U20 | 19 | 11 | 6 | 2 | 18 | 39 |
| 3 | Athletic Club MG U20 | 19 | 11 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 35 |
| 4 | Nacional de Muriae U20 | 19 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 33 |
| 5 | América Mineiro U20 | 19 | 9 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 31 |
| 6 | Coimbra U20 | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 9 | 30 |
| 7 | Boston City U20 | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 28 |
| 8 | Itabirito U20 | 19 | 7 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 25 |
| 9 | Betim U20 | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 20 |
| 10 | Inter de Minas U20 | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 18 |
| 11 | Sao Joao del Rei U20 | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 2 | 16 |
| 12 | Villa Real U20 | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -9 | 16 |
| 13 | Social U20 | 19 | 4 | 4 | 11 | -26 | 16 |
| 14 | Minas Boca U20 | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -18 | 10 |
| 15 | Uberabinha U20 | 14 | 1 | 1 | 12 | -22 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 65.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.