Itabirito U20 vs Nacional de Muriae U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Itabirito U20 and 1.03 for Nacional de Muriae U20, a combined total of 1.95. That distribution gives Nacional de Muriae U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 37%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 31% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 37% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

68.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

0.93 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Itabirito U20 home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nacional de Muriae U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Nacional de Muriae U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 37%, against 32% / 31% / 37% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Itabirito U20 and 1.03 for Nacional de Muriae U20, a combined 1.95 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Itabirito U20 win32%

Draw31%

Nacional de Muriae U20 win37%

Double chance 1X

63%

Double chance 12

69%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals58%

Over 2.5 goals31%

Over 3.5 goals13%

Both teams to score39%

Correct score

0–114.6%
0–014.2%
1–113.5%
1–013.2%
0–27.5%

Recent form

Itabirito U20

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América Mineiro U20 · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional de Muriae U20 · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-28T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Coimbra U20 · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-21T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Boston City U20 · 2-3 (L)
2026-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Mineiro U20 · 2-0 (W)

Nacional de Muriae U20

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineiro U20 · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Itabirito U20 · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs América Mineiro U20 · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-23T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Social U20 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Cruzeiro U20 · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · Itabirito U20 0-2 Nacional de Muriae U20 (Mineiro U20)
2026-06-12T13:00:00.000Z · Itabirito U20 2-2 Nacional de Muriae U20 (Mineiro U20)

Mineiro U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Atlético Mineiro U20	19	13	1	5	33	40
2	Cruzeiro U20	19	11	6	2	18	39
3	Athletic Club MG U20	19	11	2	6	12	35
4	Nacional de Muriae U20	19	9	6	4	5	33
5	América Mineiro U20	19	9	4	6	17	31
6	Coimbra U20	19	9	3	7	9	30
7	Boston City U20	19	8	4	7	3	28
8	Itabirito U20	19	7	4	8	-4	25
9	Betim U20	19	5	5	9	-17	20
10	Inter de Minas U20	14	5	3	6	-3	18
11	Sao Joao del Rei U20	14	3	7	4	2	16
12	Villa Real U20	14	4	4	6	-9	16
13	Social U20	19	4	4	11	-26	16
14	Minas Boca U20	14	2	4	8	-18	10
15	Uberabinha U20	14	1	1	12	-22	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 68.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 31%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.