· Analysis updated 16:42 UTC
Itaborai Profute vs Ceres Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for Itaborai Profute and 1.49 for Ceres, a combined total of 3.40. That distribution gives Itaborai Profute the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Itaborai Profute win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
1.92 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Itaborai Profute home form
4 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Itaborai Profute to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 22% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for Itaborai Profute and 1.49 for Ceres, a combined 3.40 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 66% and both teams to score at 66%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.5%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–27.0%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–06.4%
Recent form
Itaborai Profute
- 2026-06-07T17:45:00.000Z · A vs CAAC Brasil · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-31T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Independente RJ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Uni Souza · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Ceres · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniao Central · 1-1 (D)
Ceres
- 2026-06-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Tigres do Brasil · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-05-31T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Cardoso Moreira · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Campos AA · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-17T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Itaborai Profute · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs EC Vera Cruz · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cardoso Moreira | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Campos AA | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Tigres do Brasil | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Barra Mansa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 | Brescia Clube | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 6 | Búzios | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 7 | EC Resende | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 8 | Ceres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 9 | Uni Souza | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | Mageense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 11 | Uniao Central | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Itaborai Profute | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Independente RJ | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 14 | CAAC Brasil | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 15 | EC Vera Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 16 | Barcelona RJ | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
| 1 | Barra Mansa | 6 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Búzios | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 3 | EC Resende | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | Ceres | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 5 | Uni Souza | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Uniao Central | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Independente RJ | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 5 |
| 8 | CAAC Brasil | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -7 | 4 |
| 1 | Cardoso Moreira | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Campos AA | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Tigres do Brasil | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 4 | Brescia Clube | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Mageense | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -7 | 7 |
| 6 | Itaborai Profute | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 7 | EC Vera Cruz | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
| 8 | Barcelona RJ | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -11 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Itaborai Profute win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.