· Analysis updated 18:39 UTC
Italy U18 vs Morocco U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Italy U18 and 2.21 for Morocco U20, a combined total of 3.67. That distribution gives Morocco U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 68% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Morocco U20 win
54.6% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 2.21
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Morocco U20 away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Morocco U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 25% / 20% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.46 goals for Italy U18 and 2.21 for Morocco U20, a combined 3.67 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 68%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
75%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.1%
- 1–18.2%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 0–26.2%
Recent form
Italy U18
Morocco U20
- 2026-10-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Libya U20 · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Egypt U20 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Algeria U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U20 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U18 · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-30T08:00:00.000Z · Italy U18 1-4 Morocco U20 (Mediterranean Games)
Mediterranean Games table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Algeria U21 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 2 | Tunisia U21 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 3 | Morocco U20 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 4 | Türkiye U20 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 5 | Albania U21 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 6 | Italy U18 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 7 | North Macedonia U21 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 8 | Kosovo U21 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Morocco U20 win, at 54.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 68% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.