· Referee L. A. Garcia Olvera · Analysis updated 08:24 UTC
Italy U20 W vs New Zealand U20 W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Italy U20 W and 1.00 for New Zealand U20 W, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Italy U20 W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Italy U20 W win
60.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Italy U20 W home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
New Zealand U20 W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Italy U20 W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 21% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Italy U20 W and 1.00 for New Zealand U20 W, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.0%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–010.0%
- 2–110.0%
- 3–06.6%
Recent form
Italy U20 W
- 2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Colombia U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Spain U20 W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Korea Republic U20 W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:30:00.000Z · H vs China PR U20 W · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Japan U20 W · 1-1 (D)
New Zealand U20 W
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 W · 0-9 (L)
- 2026-09-09T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Italy U20 W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Japan U20 W · 1-2 (L)
- 2024-09-08T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghana U20 W · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-09-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Austria U20 · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
World Cup - U20 - Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Poland U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Argentina U20 W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 6 |
| 3 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 4 | Benin U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -11 | 1 |
| 1 | Brazil U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 2 | Canada U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Tanzania U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | France U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 2 | Korea Republic U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 4 | Ghana U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 3 |
| 1 | Italy U20 W | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Japan U20 W | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 3 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 4 | New Zealand U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -13 | 0 |
| 1 | Korea DPR U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 9 |
| 2 | Portugal U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 3 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 4 | Costa Rica U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
| 1 | Spain U20 W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 15 | 9 |
| 2 | Nigeria U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | New Caledonia U20 W | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -25 | 0 |
| 1 | United States U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 |
| 2 | England U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 3 | China PR U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 4 | Colombia U20 W | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 5 | Ecuador U20 W | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 6 | Mexico U20 W | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Italy U20 W win, at 60.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.