Stadio Carlo Castellani · Referee D. Dickinson · Analysis updated 17:40 UTC
Italy U21 vs North Macedonia U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.45 expected goals for Italy U21 and 0.61 for North Macedonia U21, a combined total of 4.07. That distribution gives Italy U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 8%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Italy U21 win
88.7% probability
Expected goals
3.45 – 0.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
North Macedonia U21 away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Italy U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 8% / 3% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.45 goals for Italy U21 and 0.61 for North Macedonia U21, a combined 4.07 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 44%, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
97%
Double chance 12
92%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–011.8%
- 2–010.2%
- 4–010.2%
- 3–17.2%
- 5–07.0%
Recent form
Italy U21
North Macedonia U21
- 2026-08-24T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Türkiye U20 · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-08T12:00:00.000Z · H vs United States U20 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-05-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bulgaria U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Armenia U21 · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA U21 Championship - Qualification table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Italy U21 win, at 88.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.