· Analysis updated 18:39 UTC
Itapirense vs EC São Bernardo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.01 expected goals for Itapirense and 1.78 for EC São Bernardo, a combined total of 2.79. That distribution gives EC São Bernardo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
EC São Bernardo win
55.6% probability
Expected goals
1.01 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Itapirense home form
2 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
EC São Bernardo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates EC São Bernardo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 21% / 23% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.01 goals for Itapirense and 1.78 for EC São Bernardo, a combined 2.79 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Itapirense
- 2026-03-21T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Rio Preto · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-14T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Uniao Barbarense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Rio Branco SP · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-03-08T13:00:00.000Z · H vs EC São Bernardo · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-03-04T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Brasil · 2-1 (W)
EC São Bernardo
- 2026-08-31T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Comercial · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Santo André · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs São José EC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs São Caetano · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs São Caetano · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Paulista - A3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portuguesa Santista | 15 | 12 | 0 | 3 | 17 | 36 |
| 2 | Marília | 15 | 9 | 5 | 1 | 17 | 32 |
| 3 | Rio Preto | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 11 | 29 |
| 4 | XV de Jau | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 27 |
| 5 | Rio Claro | 15 | 7 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 25 |
| 6 | Uniao Barbarense | 15 | 6 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 24 |
| 7 | EC São Bernardo | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 8 | Paulista | 15 | 6 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 23 |
| 9 | União São João | 15 | 6 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 22 |
| 10 | Catanduva | 15 | 5 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 21 |
| 11 | Bandeirante SP | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | -4 | 18 |
| 12 | Rio Branco SP | 15 | 4 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 16 |
| 13 | Francana | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -9 | 10 |
| 14 | Itapirense | 15 | 2 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 9 |
| 15 | Desportivo Brasil | 15 | 1 | 5 | 9 | -17 | 8 |
| 16 | USAC | 15 | 1 | 2 | 12 | -18 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is EC São Bernardo win, at 55.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.