· Analysis updated 19:40 UTC
Itaquá Athletico Clube U20 vs Nautico U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.37 expected goals for Itaquá Athletico Clube U20 and 0.81 for Nautico U20, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Itaquá Athletico Clube U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 42% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Itaquá Athletico Clube U20 win
49.9% probability
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.81
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Nautico U20 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Itaquá Athletico Clube U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 28% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.37 goals for Itaquá Athletico Clube U20 and 0.81 for Nautico U20, a combined 2.18 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 37% and both teams to score at 42%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–011.3%
- 2–010.6%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
Itaquá Athletico Clube U20
Nautico U20
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Jaguar U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-23T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarany U20 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Serrano PE U20 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Academica Vitoria U20 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs America PE U20 · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
São Paulo Youth Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Itaquá Athletico Clube U20 win, at 49.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 42% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.