Ituano vs Paysandu Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Ituano and 0.98 for Paysandu, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Ituano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Ituano win

46.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ituano home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Paysandu away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ituano win46%

Draw27%

Paysandu win27%

Double chance 1X

73%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

54%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals68%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals21%

Both teams to score47%

Correct score

1–013.1%
1–112.8%
0–09.5%
0–19.3%
2–09.0%

Recent form

Ituano

2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Paysandu · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Barra · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-26T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusque · 0-1 (L)

Paysandu

2026-10-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Brusque · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Ferroviária · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Inter De Limeira · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-20T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter De Limeira · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferroviária · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T20:00:00.000Z · Ituano 0-1 Paysandu (Serie C)
2024-09-28T00:30:00.000Z · Ituano 0-1 Paysandu (Serie B)
2024-06-15T21:00:00.000Z · Ituano 3-5 Paysandu (Serie B)
2021-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · Ituano 4-1 Paysandu (Serie C)
2021-10-16T20:00:00.000Z · Ituano 3-1 Paysandu (Serie C)

Serie C table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Botafogo PB	19	10	3	6	9	33
2	Brusque	19	9	5	5	6	32
3	Ferroviária	19	8	6	5	7	30
4	Maringá	19	8	6	5	2	30
5	Floresta	19	8	6	5	2	30
6	Inter De Limeira	19	8	6	5	2	30
7	Paysandu	19	9	2	8	-1	29
8	Santa Cruz	19	8	5	6	5	29
9	Ypiranga-RS	19	8	5	6	3	29
10	Guarani Campinas	19	7	7	5	10	28
11	Figueirense	19	7	7	5	-3	28
12	Maranhão	19	7	6	6	1	27
13	Amazonas	19	7	5	7	-2	26
14	Caxias	19	6	7	6	1	25
15	Ituano	19	6	4	9	-3	22
16	Volta Redonda	19	6	3	10	-12	21
17	Barra	19	5	6	8	0	21
18	Anápolis	19	5	4	10	-5	19
19	AO Itabaiana	19	4	5	10	-13	17
20	Confiança	19	3	4	12	-9	13
1	Ferroviária	6	3	2	1	3	11
2	Inter De Limeira	6	1	4	1	0	7
3	Brusque	6	1	4	1	0	7
4	Paysandu	6	1	2	3	-3	5
1	Maringá	6	3	2	1	4	11
2	Santa Cruz	6	3	2	1	2	11
3	Floresta	6	1	2	3	-3	5
4	Botafogo PB	6	1	2	3	-3	5

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Ituano win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.