· Analysis updated 13:32 UTC
Iváncsa vs Sárbogárd Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Iváncsa and 1.15 for Sárbogárd, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Iváncsa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 60%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 60% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Iváncsa win
59.7% probability
Expected goals
2.13 – 1.15
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iváncsa home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sárbogárd away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Iváncsa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 60%, against 60% / 21% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.13 goals for Iváncsa and 1.15 for Sárbogárd, a combined 3.28 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
40%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–08.5%
- 1–08.0%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Iváncsa
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Érdi VSE · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencváros II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Szeged 2011 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Majosi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Pécsi MFC · 0-7 (L)
Sárbogárd
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Iváncsa · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Budaörs · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Érdi VSE · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Szekszárd · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencváros II · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
No previous meetings were found between these teams. The prediction is still calculated from current form, home and away performance, goals data, team strength and competition statistics.
NB III - Southwest table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pécsi MFC | 10 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 26 | 28 |
| 2 | Kaposvar | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | PTE-PEAC | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 4 | Budafoki LC | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Ferencváros II | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 15 |
| 6 | Iváncsa | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Siofok | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 14 |
| 8 | Majosi | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Dunaharaszti MTK | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 | MTK Budapest II | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 12 |
| 11 | Érdi VSE | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 12 | Budaörs | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 11 |
| 13 | Paksi SE II | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Sárbogárd | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -15 | 5 |
| 15 | Szekszárd | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -34 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Iváncsa win, at 59.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.