· Analysis updated 00:48 UTC
Iveria Khashuri vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.90 expected goals for Iveria Khashuri and 1.68 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi, a combined total of 2.58. That distribution gives Lokomotivi Tbilisi the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lokomotivi Tbilisi win
55.7% probability
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.68
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lokomotivi Tbilisi to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 20% / 24% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.90 goals for Iveria Khashuri and 1.68 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi, a combined 2.58 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 48%, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.8%
- 1–111.5%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–07.6%
Recent form
Iveria Khashuri
Lokomotivi Tbilisi
- 2026-10-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Merani Tbilisi · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Didube 2014 · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Irao · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-21T15:00:00.000Z · Iveria Khashuri 0-0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Liga 3)
Liga 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guria | 25 | 17 | 5 | 3 | 56 | 56 |
| 2 | Varketili | 25 | 16 | 8 | 1 | 44 | 56 |
| 3 | FC Iberia 1999 II | 25 | 12 | 10 | 3 | 22 | 46 |
| 4 | Gonio | 25 | 13 | 5 | 7 | 10 | 44 |
| 5 | Merani Tbilisi | 25 | 12 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 43 |
| 6 | WIT Georgia | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 38 |
| 7 | Irao | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 36 |
| 8 | Dinamo Tbilisi II | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 3 | 36 |
| 9 | Didube 2014 | 25 | 9 | 8 | 8 | 3 | 35 |
| 10 | Lokomotivi Tbilisi | 25 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 3 | 34 |
| 11 | Margveti 2006 | 25 | 10 | 4 | 11 | -8 | 34 |
| 12 | Kolkheti Khobi | 25 | 7 | 5 | 13 | -15 | 26 |
| 13 | Iveria Khashuri | 25 | 3 | 11 | 11 | -14 | 20 |
| 14 | Gardabani | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -42 | 16 |
| 15 | Betlemi | 25 | 4 | 4 | 17 | -51 | 16 |
| 16 | Iberia 2010 | 25 | 3 | 5 | 17 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lokomotivi Tbilisi win, at 55.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.