Stade Alassane Ouattara · Referee David Chinoko, Malawi · Analysis updated 14:13 UTC
Ivory Coast vs Cameroon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.30 expected goals for Ivory Coast and 0.70 for Cameroon, a combined total of 2.00. That distribution gives Ivory Coast the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 32% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ivory Coast win
51.0% probability
Expected goals
1.30 – 0.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ivory Coast home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Cameroon away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–017.6%
- 0–013.5%
- 1–112.3%
- 2–011.4%
- 0–19.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 63.4% vs market 55.7%, edge +7.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 63.4% | 1.58 | +7.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.95 | 48.2% | 49.1% | 2.04 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.18 | 79.6% | 80.0% | 1.25 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 4.50 | 19.9% | 20.1% | 4.98 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.9% | 29.0% | 3.45 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Home | 1.75 | 51.2% | 51.0% | 1.96 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.2% | 71.1% | 1.41 | -1.1 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 36.6% | 2.73 | -7.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Ivory Coast
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Cameroon · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Somalia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Ghana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-30T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Norway · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Curaçao · 2-0 (W)
Cameroon
- 2026-10-03T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ivory Coast · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Congo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Comoros · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-03-31T06:00:00.000Z · A vs China · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T09:10:00.000Z · A vs Australia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-28T20:00:00.000Z · Ivory Coast 1-1 Cameroon (Africa Cup of Nations)
- 2021-11-16T19:00:00.000Z · Ivory Coast 0-1 Cameroon (World Cup - Qualification Africa)
- 2021-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · Ivory Coast 2-1 Cameroon (World Cup - Qualification Africa)
- 2016-01-30T16:00:00.000Z · Ivory Coast 3-0 Cameroon (African Nations Championship)
- 2015-01-28T18:00:00.000Z · Ivory Coast 1-0 Cameroon (Africa Cup of Nations)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ivory Coast win, at 51.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 32%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.