Ivry vs Thonon Évian Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.28 expected goals for Ivry and 1.33 for Thonon Évian, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Thonon Évian the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.4% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.28 – 1.33

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ivry home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Thonon Évian away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Thonon Évian to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 36% / 26% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.28 goals for Ivry and 1.33 for Thonon Évian, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ivry win36%

Draw26%

Thonon Évian win38%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

64%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–112.5%
0–19.8%
1–09.5%
1–28.3%
2–18.0%

Recent form

Ivry

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Belfort · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Thaon · 3-0 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Chalon-sur-Saône · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pontarlier · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Besançon · 3-0 (W)

Thonon Évian

2026-05-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Jura Dolois · 2-1 (W)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Racing Besançon · 1-0 (W)
2026-04-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Sochaux II · 2-0 (W)
2026-04-18T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Troyes II · 2-2 (D)
2026-04-11T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Belfort · 1-5 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

National 3 - Group F table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Troyes II	26	15	6	5	22	51
2	Thonon Évian	26	13	7	6	12	46
3	Chalon	26	12	9	5	12	45
4	Racing Besançon	26	11	10	5	14	43
5	Jura Dolois	26	12	6	8	6	42
6	Torcy	26	10	7	9	2	37
7	Pontarlier	26	9	9	8	7	36
8	Ivry	26	9	8	9	-3	35
9	Thaon	26	9	5	12	2	32
10	Belfort	26	7	9	10	3	30
11	Mulhouse	26	8	6	12	-11	30
12	Strasbourg II	26	7	7	12	-20	28
13	Sochaux II	26	7	6	13	-7	27
14	Besançon	26	2	7	17	-39	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.