Iwaki Greenfield · Referee C. A. Ramos · Analysis updated 04:55 UTC
Iwaki vs Vegalta Sendai Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Iwaki and 1.92 for Vegalta Sendai, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Vegalta Sendai the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Vegalta Sendai win
49.8% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.92
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Iwaki home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vegalta Sendai away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
50%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–16.9%
- 2–16.8%
- 0–26.7%
Recent form
Iwaki
- 2026-10-25T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Shonan Bellmare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Ventforet Kofu · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Blaublitz Akita · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 0-4 (L)
Vegalta Sendai
- 2026-10-25T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Albirex Niigata · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-21T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Imabari · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Tokushima Vortis · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T04:05:00.000Z · A vs Montedio Yamagata · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T06:00:00.000Z · H vs Jubilo Iwata · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T08:00:00.000Z · Iwaki 0-2 Vegalta Sendai (J2 League)
- 2025-11-29T05:00:00.000Z · Iwaki 1-0 Vegalta Sendai (J2 League)
- 2025-05-25T04:00:00.000Z · Iwaki 1-2 Vegalta Sendai (J2 League)
- 2024-08-31T10:00:00.000Z · Iwaki 0-2 Vegalta Sendai (J2 League)
- 2024-06-02T04:00:00.000Z · Iwaki 1-2 Vegalta Sendai (J2 League)
- 2023-10-08T05:00:00.000Z · Iwaki 2-2 Vegalta Sendai (J2 League)
- 2023-03-12T05:00:00.000Z · Iwaki 1-0 Vegalta Sendai (J2 League)
J2 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vegalta Sendai | 13 | 8 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 27 |
| 2 | Albirex Niigata | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 26 |
| 3 | Kataller Toyama | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Yokohama FC | 13 | 6 | 4 | 3 | 9 | 22 |
| 5 | Shonan Bellmare | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 22 |
| 6 | Omiya Ardija | 13 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 21 |
| 7 | Tegevajaro Miyazaki | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Oita Trinita | 13 | 4 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 9 | Iwaki | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 17 |
| 10 | Sagan Tosu | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -1 | 17 |
| 11 | Tokushima Vortis | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 17 |
| 12 | Consadole Sapporo | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 13 | Blaublitz Akita | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 16 |
| 14 | Jubilo Iwata | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 15 | Fujieda MYFC | 13 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 15 |
| 16 | Vanraure Hachinohe | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 14 |
| 17 | Montedio Yamagata | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -2 | 13 |
| 18 | Tochigi City | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -2 | 12 |
| 19 | Imabari | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -11 | 11 |
| 20 | Ventforet Kofu | 13 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -17 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Vegalta Sendai win, at 49.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.