Estadio Merkatondoa · Analysis updated 16:55 UTC
Izarra vs Atlético Artajonés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for Izarra and 1.03 for Atlético Artajonés, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Izarra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Izarra win
61.8% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Izarra home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Artajonés away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Izarra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 20% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for Izarra and 1.03 for Atlético Artajonés, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.9%
- 2–09.7%
- 1–19.5%
- 1–09.3%
- 3–16.9%
Recent form
Izarra
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Beti Kozkor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bidezarra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 1-5 (L)
Atlético Artajonés
- 2026-05-09T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Peña Sport · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-03T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Valle Egüés · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-24T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Huarte · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cortes · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-10T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Oberena · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Gazte Berriak | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Beti Kozkor | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Aoiz | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Subiza | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | San Juan | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Doneztebe FT | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Beti Onak | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Txantrea | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Huarte | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Pamplona | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Cortes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Bidezarra | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Cantolagua | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Cirbonero | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Izarra win, at 61.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.