· Analysis updated 13:23 UTC
Izarra vs Beti Kozkor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.28 expected goals for Izarra and 0.73 for Beti Kozkor, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives Izarra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Izarra win
72.4% probability
Expected goals
2.28 – 0.73
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Izarra home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Beti Kozkor away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Izarra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 72%, against 72% / 17% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.28 goals for Izarra and 0.73 for Beti Kozkor, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
90%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.9%
- 1–011.3%
- 3–09.8%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–18.2%
Recent form
Izarra
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Beti Kozkor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bidezarra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 1-5 (L)
Beti Kozkor
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Txantrea · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Izarra · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cortes · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pamplona · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bidezarra · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 20 | 22 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 20 |
| 3 | Beti Kozkor | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 4 | Gazte Berriak | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 5 | San Juan | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 11 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | Subiza | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
| 8 | Aoiz | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Txantrea | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 10 |
| 10 | Doneztebe FT | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 9 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Beti Onak | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 13 | Cirbonero | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -8 | 8 |
| 14 | Huarte | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | Pamplona | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 16 | Cortes | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 5 |
| 17 | Bidezarra | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 18 | Cantolagua | 7 | 1 | 0 | 6 | -17 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Izarra win, at 72.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.