· Analysis updated 14:51 UTC
Izarra vs Subiza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.09 expected goals for Izarra and 1.05 for Subiza, a combined total of 4.14. That distribution gives Izarra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 78% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Izarra win
77.7% probability
Expected goals
3.09 – 1.05
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Izarra home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Subiza away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Izarra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.09 goals for Izarra and 1.05 for Subiza, a combined 4.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.0%
- 3–07.8%
- 2–07.6%
- 4–16.4%
Recent form
Izarra
- 2026-09-26T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Beti Kozkor · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Bidezarra · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs San Juan · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Cirbonero · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-06-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pamplona · 1-5 (L)
Subiza
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs San Juan · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Cirbonero · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Avance Ezcabarte · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Valle Egüés · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gazte Berriak · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Izarra | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 15 |
| 2 | Mutilvera | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 3 | Gazte Berriak | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 |
| 4 | Beti Kozkor | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Aoiz | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Avance Ezcabarte | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 8 |
| 7 | Subiza | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 7 |
| 8 | San Juan | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Doneztebe FT | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Beti Onak | 5 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
| 11 | Valle Egüés | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 5 |
| 12 | Txantrea | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 5 |
| 13 | Huarte | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 14 | Pamplona | 5 | 0 | 4 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 15 | Cortes | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 16 | Bidezarra | 5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 17 | Cantolagua | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -12 | 3 |
| 18 | Cirbonero | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Izarra win, at 77.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 78%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.